Dadl Cynulliad ar Forglawdd Hafren/Debate on Severn Barrage

Dyma nodiadau ar gyfer araith ar ynni o aber Hafren yn y Cynulliad.

Here are my speech notes for the debate on energy from the Severn estuary today. English follows.



1. Yn cydnabod y potensial i gynhyrchu ynni adnewyddadwy o Aber Afon Hafren a phwysigrwydd prosiect o’r fath i Lywodraeth Cymru o ran cyflawni ei thargedau ynni adnewyddadwy, yn ogystal â’r potensial i greu cyflogaeth a chyfleoedd hyfforddi; a



2. Yn credu, wrth ddatblygu ynni o’r fath, y dylid dylunio’r dechnoleg i echdynnu’r ynni gan sicrhau ei fod yn cael yr effaith amgylcheddol leiaf bosibl, cyn belled ag sy’n rhesymol ymarferol a chymesur.





Fy mhwrpas wrth agor yw gwyntyllu’r posibiliadau ar gyfer datblygu trydan o lif y dwr ym mor Hafren ac i drafod rol y Cynulliad hwn, fel Senedd Cymru, a rol llywodraeth Cymru.

Cefndir y ddadl hon wrth gwrs yw’r angen dirfawr i sefydlu economi carbon isel yng Nghymru. Dyma amcanion rwy’n eu cefnogi ond mae problemau datblygu ynni gwynt; anhawsterau a goblygiadau datblygu nwy “shale” a chwestiynau ynghylch dyfodol ynni niwclear yn sgil damwain Fukushima ac amharodrwydd cwmniau i fuddsoddi arian preifat yn y diwydiant niwclear y nein gorfodi i ystyried pa adnoddau naturiol sydd gennym yng Nghymru a all ddarparu’r “baseload” dibynadwy mae unrhyw economi carbon isel ei angen.

Mae’n briodol fod y ddadl yn cyd-daro gyda thrafodaeth adroddiad y Pwyllgor Amgychedd a Chynialdwyedd ar bolisi ynni a chynllunio, gan y bydd angen gweithredu ar argymhellion y pwyllgor hwnnw i wireddu economi carbon isel.



Yma, o fewn tafliad carreg llythrennol i’r Senedd, ceir un o adnoddau ynni mwya pwerus yn y byd.

Mae gan afon Hafren y cerrynt llanw mwya ym Mhrydain. Yn ol y Comisiwn Datblygu Cynaladwy byrhoedlog, mae potensial cynhyrchu 10% o holl drydan y DG pe defnyddir y llanw yn llawn.

Mae hynny’n enfawr, digon i fod yn gynsail “baseload” i chwyldro gwyrdd adnewyddol go iawn.

O’r herwydd bu’r afon yn destun ymchwil difrifol i’w hadnoddau ers 1981 o leia.

Yn fwy diweddar, bu astudiaeth diocholdeb llawn gan lywodraeth y DG.

Casgliad yr astudiaeth hon oedd y byddai morglawdd Hafren yn cynhyrchu 5% o holl drydan y DG; yn costio tau £34b o bunnoedd; bod a bywyd gweithredu o tua 120 o flynyddoedd a chyda sgileffeithiau amgylcheddol sylweddol iawn, iawn.

Penderfyniad llywodraeth y DG y pryd hynny yn 2010 oedd i beidio a bwrw ymlaen ag arian cyhoeddus i forglawdd, gan y byddai cynlluniau amrywiol eraill carbon isel yn well i’r pwrs cyhoeddus.



Ers hynny bu newid yn y lliw gwleidydol yn San Steffan a bu oedi ac arafu amlwg yn y cynlluniau ynni adnewyddol llai ac amrwyiol hynny yng ngymru, wrth ini ddadlau o hyd am effaith TAN 8.

Ni welaf fod y cynllun diweddar i ddatblygu ynni gwynt yn Iwerddon, a’u trosglwyddo drwy Gymru i’r grid cenedlaethol, yn cynrychioli budd sylweddol i economi Cymru chwaith.

Ers hynny hefyd, mae cwmni Hafren Power wedi mynegu diddordeb datblygu morgladd heb geiniog o arian cyhoeddus uniongyrchol, ond yn hytrach ar sail y cynlluniau presennol i gefnogi prisoedd trydan o ynni adnewyddol – y Contract for Difference.

Cyn bo hir felly, mae’n bosib y bydd rhaid i ni fel Senedd a’r llywodraeth ymateb i gynllun o’r fath a dangos ein cefnogaeth ai peidio.



Now yesterday, the FM expressed very clearly to me that he wished to see his government gain full planning powers of all renewable energy projects in Wales. I welcome his conversion to our cause.

Previously, to both myself and Leanne Wood, he has stated that any barrage scheme in the Severn would be a matter for the Westminster government.

I hope today to persuade the Minister, and then hear from him, that this is a key issue for the Welsh government and that is it right and proper for the Welsh government to take an active role in considering Hafren Power’s plans and in coming to a view on them.

I also hope to persuade fellow members that we as a Welsh parliament should come to a view if possible.

I don’t expect to do that today, but I hope this motion will help us all frame the debate going forward.

If we briefly consider Hafren Power’s current proposals we get a sense of the importance of tidal energy from the Severn not only to the Welsh economy but to the countries on these islands as a whole.

The Barrage will provide around 6,500 MW installed capacity with an energy output of 15 – 16.4 TWh / year which is approximately 5% of the UK’s annual electricity demand.

It will be deliver a reliable source of base load power generation for 120 years whilst complementing the UK energy mix and offshore wind strategy at a cost less than that of offshore wind.

The Renewable Energy Route Map for Wales (Pub. 2008; CMK-22-03-128; G/596/08-08) refers to the ‘tidal power in the Severn Estuary with its immense potential’ (para 4.12). It then continues in para 4.14 by saying ‘allocating a national half the output of any major Severn barrage to Wales and half to the South West of England’. This will equate to an electrical energy generated of around 8TWh (e) / yr to Wales.

Such an output would meet and indeed exceed the Welsh government’s current target of 7TWh by 2020.

This target is itself currently way off target.

The contribution it could make to renewable energy would be immense, and in providing a reliable baseload, it could also unlock the further development of more intermittent technologies.

Hafren Power’s current estimate of the investment needed is at at least £25bn, to be funded, they say, from private finance and sovereign wealth funds, and based on both equity and debt.

Some understand from the UK government of the continuing arrangements of support for renewable electricity prices would be essential therefore.

It’s worth noting that this is precisely the same arrangement that any privately constructed nuclear powers stations, at least one of which is proposed on the Severn, requires.

Using just one estimation, that prepared for the UK Contractors Group, for each £1 invested in construction, we could expect £2.84 in total economic activity.

During the construction period alone, the Barrage will create over 200,000 employment years equating to approximately 28,500 new jobs.

Post-barrage construction, these levels of employment are expected to be maintained and even enhanced by the strengthening of the manufacturing base at, for example, Port Talbot and Baglan. There will be real potential to work in a targeted way to make sure economic benefit is targeted.

Supply chain jobs would also be significant, such as those involved in aggregates and transport which would directly benefit from the scheme.

For Wales, such a project could be completely transformational.

But only if we actively engage and don’t bury our heads in the Severn mudflats

Now, I personally believe we must try and utlise the Severn’s immense power. I am not wedded to a particular technology, though I will discuss shortly the undoubted significant environmental impacts of a barrage. Tidal lagoons have also been proposed, but this may not be an either/or choice.

What I do feel strongly about is that we in Wales should maximise for our benefit the investment that any tidal development would bring.

We should use it to strengthen our skills set; to build up our universities; to enrich our role in the world in sustainability and in giving our young people a green economy.

We should approach it in partnership with England and Westminster, not in competition, but neither should be let this development or any other, be decided and run for the benefit of the UK government.

I want to hear today from the Minister a clear declaration that this government will fight to ensure that tidal developments are are jointly shared with Westminster and that Wales can use Severn power to build up our own sovereign wealth.

It’s too early for details, but I also want to put on record that I believe any such development should have strong community benefits and a way of reinvesting in our green economy.

But it’s not just for Government. As a parliament, we also should make our voices heard and say that we want our say also.

A barrage would literally change the face of Wales. It could change our economy. It would attract investment to a particular area. There are dangers and risks for Wales as well as huge potential. All these need to be explored in our democratic institutions.

As does the immense environmental impact.

The 2010 feasibility study found that even smaller barrage schemes would have an unrecedented impact in an environmentally designated area and that compensation for the damage would be very challenging



It found that habitats including saltmarsh and mudflat would be lost, potentially reduce bird populations of up to 30 species and severe effects on fish populations, with local extinctions and population collapses for some species, including Atlantic salmon and Twaite shad.

Water levels would also be affected creating an increased flood risk both around the Severn and further afield which would need additional investment in flood defences

Now many of these effects will be governed by EU regulations, such as the Habitats Directive.

It is clear to me that large compensatory habitats will have to be created in the vicinity.

There is also much work that needs to be done on the effect of the barrage on fish movements, water quality, sediment build up and coastal erosion.

This will entail a whole ecosystem approach.

I would like to ask the Minsiter what role and responsibilities he believes the Weslh government would have in all this, as it is unclear to me where the boundaries lie.

Clearly, a Severn barrage or even several tidal lagoons, would change for ever the current ecology of the river. No energy developments are without any ecological impact however. The question will be, does the immense energy produced justify the impact on such a distinct environment and can we put in place mitigation and compensatory measures that will ensure a living, diverse ecology continues – albeit changed – around the Severn estuary.

We can’t answer all these questions today but I hope our backbench debate demonstrates that we as elected representatives will demand and discuss any barrage proposals thoroughly and without prejudice.